The intertwining nature of China’s economic opening and strategic development The sole intent is to bring clarity to the central problem faced by Australian governments and planners: what is China’s ability to threaten Australia militarily, and how is that capability likely to grow? Will China seek to become the dominant military power in Asia, pushing the United States out of the region? Again, this paper draws no conclusion on this critical question, other than to assume that it is a reasonable possibility, and that Australia ought to think about how to defend itself in those circumstances.This paper will also not look at some of the more exotic and innovative ways China might project national power against Australia, whether that is with nuclear weapons or cyber power or para-military maritime forces, which are so active in the South China Sea. Australia must plan on the basis of capability. But China’s intent is too unpredictable and changeable to serve as a basis for defence planning. Why does this matter, since China is not Australia’s enemy? This paper makes no claims about specific Chinese intent against Australia. This paper examines that capability and looks at its likely further expansion. The PLA already has more non-nuclear long-range strike capability with the range to hit Australia than the Soviet Union ever did. So, when Australia now thinks about how to defend its territory, it confronts a qualitatively different problem to the Cold War, when Australia knew the Soviet Union would need years, decades even, to build the capability to threaten Australia. But Soviet conventional capability was never so far-reaching even at the Soviet Union’s peak as a military power, it lacked the capability to hit Australia with more than a handful of cruise missiles fired from long-range aircraft or submarines. Of course, the Soviet Union could have, in extremis, landed nuclear-tipped intercontinental missiles on Australian territory. Not since the Second World War has any great power, other than the United States, had the capability to project significant military force against the Australian landmass. The PLA is also developing the military capability to put at risk Australia ’s territorial integrity. In fact, the PLA is on track to gain the ability to threaten Australia ’s access to international markets and energy sources and thus obtain direct coercive power over Australia’s economic wellbeing. But that situation is changing. The PLA is rapidly growing from a local military force to a rising global power. Protected by distance and by its alliance with the greatest naval power in history, Australia’s vital interests or territorial integrity have never been threatened by the PLA. As a result of the wide moat of the Pacific Ocean, the PLA has historically been something that most Australians could safely ignore. And the sheer ability of the PLA to take such extreme steps places pressure on decision-makers whose actions are weighted with the fear that force might be used against them.įour thousand kilometres - the rough distance between Australia and the nearest point on mainland China - sounds like a long way, and until fairly recently it was. But defence policy operates in the realm of low-probability, high-consequence events. The prospect of Chinese military action against Australia remains remote. The expected introduction of additional PLA air and naval capabilities over time will worsen this asymmetry. Absent assistance from allies and partners, China already possesses the capability to strike Australia from existing bases with bomber aircraft and long-range missiles. Based on its scope, scale, and the specific capabilities being developed, this buildup appears to be designed to, first, threaten the United States with ejection from the western Pacific, and then to achieve dominance in the Indo-Pacific.Īssuming ongoing US involvement and support, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is unlikely to be able to seriously threaten the environment in Australia’s immediate region, nor Australia’s sovereignty, in the immediate future. China is engaged in the largest and most rapid expansion of maritime and aerospace power in generations. As the international scope of China’s economic interests has expanded over time, China’s strategic horizons have broadened correspondingly, and so have its military capabilities.
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